BC Election 2013 Map & Guide

The Tyee's BC Election 2013 Riding Forecasts

We have analyzed the polls, mulled over elections past, and peered into our crystal ball to bring you our predictions for which candidates will win which ridings.

These calls are divided up into likely wins and definite wins, with some ridings deemed too close to call.

These predictions are by no means set in stone. We fully expect them to change as the campaign season rolls on and we hope you, our readers, will provide insight from your own ridings across the province. Email feedback here.

Quick stats on The Tyee's BC Election 2013 calls

The Tyee has called 47 ridings "Definitely," 38 ridings "Likely," and there are 0 ridings that are still "Too close to call."

    Totals

  • BC NDP 57 67%
  • BC Liberal 27 32%
  • Independent 1 1%
  • Too close to call: 0 0%

    Called Definitely

  • BC NDP 34 40%
  • BC Liberal 13 15%

    Called Likely

  • BC NDP 23 27%
  • BC Liberal 14 16%
  • Independent 1 1%

Riding calls
Riding Call Party Explanation
Abbotsford-Mission Likely BC Liberal

This is long-time Liberal territory and the party has a strong new candidate in veteran city councillor Simon Gibson.

Abbotsford South Likely BC Liberal

Reports from all-candidates' meetings suggest this is a race between the the Liberals' Darryl Plecas and independent John van Dongen. No doubt this will be a close one, however, as Abby Mayor Bruce Banman pointed out: "The Liberals could run a Labrador retriever there and get elected."

Abbotsford West Likely BC Liberal

Incumbent Mike de Jong is likely to hold this seat for another term.

Alberni-Pacific Rim Definitely BC NDP

This riding is long-time NDP territory, and incumbent Scott Fraser has staying power.

Boundary-Similkameen Likely BC NDP

With the Liberals' John Slater resigning, and a close race in 2009, this riding will be close again -- but NDP momentum should swing it.

Burnaby-Deer Lake Definitely BC NDP

The NDP's Kathy Corrigan is running again this year, after a close win in 2009.

Burnaby-Edmonds Definitely BC NDP

The NDP's Raj Chouhan has sat comfortably as MLA in this riding since 2005.

Burnaby-Lougheed Likely BC NDP

After a close race in 2009, Liberal MLA Harry Bloy had a rough term. Chances are this riding will lean towards an NDP candidate.

Burnaby North Likely BC NDP

Liberal MLA Richard Lee has won each election since 2001, but just barely. NDP momentum could finally topple him.

Cariboo-Chilcotin Likely BC NDP

Liberal Donna Barnett just hung on to this seat in 2009; however polls and NDP momentum suggest her opponent Charlie Wyse might take it this year.

Cariboo North Likely BC Liberal

Bob Simpson was elected here in 2005 and again 2009 for the NDP, but was ejected from the caucus in 2010 for criticizing party leadership. The key question in this race is whether constituents are going accept Simpson as an independent. The Tyee is betting that enough will -- enough to split the vote and allow Liberal candidate Coralee Oakes to slip up the middle.

Chilliwack Likely BC NDP

This is one of The Tyee's Hot Ridings to watch. The BC Liberal MLA is retiring, and his party's replacement, John Martin, may have left too toxic a trail of statements in the past.

Chilliwack-Hope Likely BC NDP

Local media coverage of all-candidates' debates points to education as a big issue in this riding -- and the Liberals don't have a stellar track record on this issue. Conservative Michael Henshaw comes across as a charismatic candidate. This is the kind of riding where he might seriously siphon votes from those who don't like the Liberals but can't bring themselves to vote NDP.

Columbia River-Revelstoke Definitely BC NDP

Incumbent Norm Macdonald is in good shape to hold this seat for the NDP.

Comox Valley Likely BC NDP

The Liberals have held Comox Valley since 2001, but community angst over the proposed Raven coal might swing this riding for the NDP.

Coquitlam-Burke Mountain Likely BC NDP

Another close race here, but NDP candidate Chris Wilson has a high profile in this community as a volunteer, former Olympian and world champion wrestler. His nomination was backed by Port Coquitlam MLA Mike Farnworth, and with a strong effort the party could sweep the Tri-Cities.

Coquitlam-Maillardville Definitely BC NDP

The NDP has held this riding since 2005; this year the party's candidate is Coquitlam council member Selina Robinson.

Cowichan Valley Definitely BC NDP

The NDP's Bill Routley won with a healthy margin last time, and there's no reason to suggest he won't this year.

Delta North Likely BC NDP

This riding has been NDP since 2005, however the party is running a new candidate this year against Liberal Scott Hamilton, a long-time Delta councilor.

Delta South Likely Independent

Indie Vicki Huntington won by a hair in 2009. This time the Liberals' high-profile candidate Bruce McDonald might make it another close race -- but not close enough.

Esquimalt-Royal Roads Definitely BC NDP

The NDP's Maurine Karagianis won handily in 2009 and 2005; this time she has momentum on her side.

Fort Langley-Aldergrove Definitely BC Liberal

In this riding, long-time MLA Rich Coleman is the Minister of Votes. The only question is, by how much will he win this time?

Fraser-Nicola Definitely BC NDP

The NDP's Harry Lali will keep his seat in this solidly-NDP riding.

Juan de Fuca Definitely BC NDP

The NDP's John Horgan won handily in 2009 and is a high profile party member sure to keep his seat.

Kamloops-North Thompson Likely BC NDP

Liberal cabinet minister Terry Lake holds this seat and is running again. However, this is a bellwether riding, and early polls show voters favour the NDP. But don't count Lake out yet.

Kamloops-South Thompson Likely BC NDP

Although the Liberals won easily in 2009, MLA Kevin Krueger is retiring, and like Kamloops-North Thompson this is bellwether riding.

Kelowna-Lake Country Definitely BC Liberal

Incumbent Norm Letnick will hold his seat in this Liberal stronghold.

Kelowna-Mission Definitely BC Liberal

This riding is a Liberal stronghold, and odds are incumbent Steve Thomson will keep his seat.

Kootenay East Likely BC Liberal

Polls show 'Kootenay Bill' Bennett has a strong lead here, and, as one Tyee reader in this riding pointed out, there is no Conservative candidate this year to siphon votes from the right. The Conservative took almost 10 per cent of the vote last election.

Kootenay West Definitely BC NDP

The NDP's Katrine Conroy hammered her Liberal opponent in 2009 and is running again this year.

Langley Likely BC Liberal

This is one of The Tyee's Hot Ridings to watch, since the Conservative's John Cummins will make this a three-way race. However, it's likely that popular Liberal incumbent Mary Polak will hang on to her seat.

Maple Ridge-Mission Likely BC NDP

Liberal MLA Marc Dalton only beat the NDP by a hair in 2009. He faces the same opposition candidate this year, but this time the NDP has an advantage.

Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows Definitely BC NDP

This riding went to the NDP in a close race last election, but despite running a new candidate the party should be able to hold it this year.

Nanaimo Definitely BC NDP

Long-time NDP MLA Leonard Krog is running again, and there's no reason he will lose the seat this year.

Nanaimo-North Cowichan Definitely BC NDP

Popular NDP candidate Doug Routley is running again with no serious challenger.

Nechako Lakes Likely BC Liberal

Liberal John Rustad won this riding handily in 2009. Early polls suggest his NDP challenger, community organizer Sussanne Skidmore-Hewlett, might take this seat, but the latest numbers show Rustad sitting with 43 per cent of the vote.

Nelson-Creston Definitely BC NDP

The NDP has won every election in Nelson-Creston since 1991, with the exception of 2001.

New Westminster Definitely BC NDP

This has been NDP territory since 2005, and definitely won't swing this election.

North Coast Definitely BC NDP

Incumbent Gary Coons has handily won the past two elections. He retired this year, but new NDP candidate Jennifer Rice -- currently serving on Prince Rupert city council -- is more than likely to keep this seat.

North Island Definitely BC NDP

This is NDP incumbent Claire Trevena's turf. She's running for a third term and shouldn't face any serious threats.

North Vancouver-Lonsdale Likely BC NDP

This is one of The Tyee's Hot Ridings to watch. It's currently held by popular Liberal Naomi Yamamoto, but it's the most NDP friendly on North Shore and the NDP are running a known entity: councillor Craig Keating. It could swing.

North Vancouver-Seymour Definitely BC Liberal

This riding has voted Liberal for decades. Jane Thornthwaite demolished NDP in 2009 and will run again this year.

Oak Bay-Gordon Head Likely BC Liberal

The Greens have been campaigning hard in this riding, with high-profile candidate Andrew Weaver likely to come in with 20 per cent of the popular vote, according to Eric Grenier, author of the political and election blog ThreeHundredEight.com. That prediction also puts Liberal incumbent Ida Chong ahead of NDP candidate Jessica Van Der Veen, but only slightly.

Parksville-Qualicum Likely BC Liberal

The BC Liberals have a high-profile and likeable candidate in paralympian Michelle Stilwell, and polls show she's ahead in this riding.  

Peace River North Likely BC Liberal

The polls show the Liberals are ahead, and readers suggest there is no evidence to show that NDP is gaining strength in this particular riding. This is a race between incumbent Liberal Pat Pimm and independent Arthur Hadland, and we expect Pimm to take the lead.

Peace River South Likely BC Liberal

Lekstrom has ruled this riding since 2001, and he will be replaced by another strong Liberal candidate, Dawson Creek Mayor Mike Bernier.

Penticton Likely BC NDP

This riding is Liberal territory, however early polls show the NDP ahead with a strong lead.

Port Coquitlam Definitely BC NDP

The NDP's Farnworth is an incumbent -- no reason to think he'll be beat.

Port Moody-Coquitlam Definitely BC NDP

Incumbent Joe Trasolini, a popular former Port Moody mayor, won this riding for the NDP in a 2012 byelection landslide.

Powell River-Sunshine Coast Definitely BC NDP

The NDP's Nicholas Simons has held this riding since 2005. His only opponent this time around, Liberal and former federal bureacrat Patrick Muncaster, likely doesn't pose an overwhelming challenge.

Prince George-Mackenzie Likely BC NDP

The Liberals have held this riding since 2001, however popular incumbent Pat Bell is not running again and the NDP candidate is creeping up in the polls.

Prince George-Valemount Likely BC Liberal

This is a battleground riding for both the Liberals and NDP; however a recent local poll put incumbent Shirley Bond slightly ahead.

Richmond Centre Definitely BC Liberal

The Liberals have held this riding since 2001.

Richmond East Definitely BC Liberal

It would be a bizarre upset if longtime Liberal MLA Linda Reid doesn't win again this year.

Richmond-Steveston Definitely BC Liberal

This seems an obvious Liberal win, since incumbent John Yap won with 60 per cent of the vote last election and polls indicate the Liberals still have strong support in this riding.

Saanich North and the Islands Likely BC NDP

Adam Olsen, a popular Saanich councillor now running for the Greens. has been campaigning hard in this riding. But Liberal Murray Coell has dominated for more than a decade; he beat out the NDP's Gary Holman by a very narrow margin in 2009. Holman is running again this year, but Coell is not. That's a definite advantage for the NDP.

Saanich South Definitely BC NDP

The NDP has held this riding since 2005 and incumbent Lana Popham faces a new Liberal challenger.

Shuswap Likely BC Liberal

This Liberal stronghold would be a sure bet, but with longtime Liberal incumbent George Abbott out of the picture, and a slate of new candidates, the race has been more interesting. Still, old habits die hard and we predict constituents will elect a Liberal once again.

Skeena Definitely BC NDP

Incumbent Robin Austin won the past two elections, and, save for 2001, this is a traditionally NDP riding.

Stikine Definitely BC NDP

The NDP's Doug Donaldson won in 2009 by a small margin. No reason to think he won't again.

Surrey-Cloverdale Definitely BC Liberal

The Liberals have held this riding for two decades.

Surrey-Fleetwood Definitely BC NDP

No reason why incumbent Jagrup Brar shouldn't take the riding again this year.

Surrey-Green Timbers Definitely BC NDP

NDP incumbent Sue Hammell won by a landslide in the last election. Also, this riding led the charge against the HST. No love lost on the Libs.

Surrey-Newton Definitely BC NDP

The NDP's Harry Bains, who took the riding in 2005 and won with 69 per cent of the vote last election, is running again. He's a sure bet.

Surrey-Panorama Likely BC NDP

This riding went NDP in 2005 but Liberal in 2009. Veteran Surrey councillor Marvin Hunt, a first-time Liberal candidate, stands a good chance against NDP businessman Amrik Mahil. However, we think NDP province-wide momentum will help Mahil win this race.

Surrey-Tynehead Likely BC NDP

The longtime Liberal incumbent, who won by a narrow margin last election, is not running this year. Now, NDP candidate Avtar Bains is up against former RCMP officer Amrik Virk for the Liberals.

Surrey-Whalley Definitely BC NDP

NDP incumbent Bruce Ralston took this riding in 2005, and won the 2009 election with 66 per cent of the vote.

Surrey-White Rock Definitely BC Liberal

Gordon Hogg was first elected in '97 and has ruled this riding since, winning the last election by a huge margin. No contest here.

Vancouver-Fairview Likely BC NDP

This is one of The Tyee's Hot Ridings to watch, with two heavyweight contenders. Since the NDP won in 2005 and only narrowly lost in 2009, we say this year's candidate, former Sierra Club executive director and veteran union leader George Heyman, will take it.

Vancouver-False Creek Likely BC Liberal

Former Vancouver mayor Sam Sullivan is this year's Liberal candidate in a riding that has traditionally swung right -- though he faces a few tough candidates.

Vancouver-Fraserview Likely BC NDP

Although the Liberals have held this riding for the last three elections, the margin of victory has shrunk each time. NDP candidate Gabriel Yiu lost by less than 750 votes in 2009 and is running against this year.

Vancouver-Hastings Definitely BC NDP

This is a traditional NDP stronghold, with incumbent Shane Simpson running for the third consecutive election.

Vancouver-Kensington Definitely BC NDP

The NDP has beat out the Liberals here in the past two elections, and incumbent Mable Elmore, who won with 52 per cent of the vote last time, is running again.

Vancouver-Kingsway Definitely BC NDP

This is NDP Leader Adrian Dix's riding. He's held the seat since 2005, winning the past elections by a wide margin.

Vancouver-Langara Likely BC NDP

This riding has been a Liberal stronghold, but incumbent Moira Stilwell is being challenged by NDP candidate George Chow, a two-term Vancouver councillor and prominent member of the Chinese community.

Vancouver-Mount Pleasant Definitely BC NDP

NDP incumbent Jenny Kwan has held this riding since 1996. No contest.

Vancouver-Point Grey Likely BC NDP

Premier Christy Clark is running against prominent Vancouver civil rights advocate and lawyer David Eby. It's going to be a tight race, but with Clark's approval ratings tanking, it's looking like Eby will eke out a win.

Vancouver-Quilchena Definitely BC Liberal

Although long-time incumbent Colin Hansen is not running this year, this wealthy and solidly Liberal riding will remain so.

Vancouver-West End Definitely BC NDP

Popular incumbent NDP candidate Spencer Chandra Herbert, who won with 56 per cent of the vote last election, is a shoo-in.

Vernon-Monashee Likely BC NDP

This is one of The Tyee's Hot Ridings to watch. If any Okanagan seat could swing NDP due to vote-splitting on the right, it's this one.

Victoria-Beacon Hill Definitely BC NDP

Although Green Leader Jane Sterk opted to run here, former NDP leader Carole James has held this riding comfortably since 2005.

Victoria-Swan Lake Definitely BC NDP

NDP incumbent and former Victoria councillor Rob Fleming has held this seat since 2005, taking 60 per cent of the vote last election. He faces two newcomers from the Liberals and Green parties this year.

West Vancouver-Capilano Definitely BC Liberal

Incumbent Ralph Sultan has held this riding for three consecutive elections, taking 67 per cent of the vote in 2009. New Conservative candidate David Jones, a former West Van municipal candidate might offer some competition, but not enough to take the seat.

West Vancouver-Sea to Sky Definitely BC Liberal

The Liberals won more than 50 per cent of the vote last election, with the remainder split between Green and NDP candidates. With a new NDP candidate, the vote will likely go to the new Liberal candidate, three-term Pemberton Mayor Jordan Sturdy.

Westside-Kelowna Definitely BC Liberal

Swept by the Liberals in the 2009 election, this riding has the highest number of people who moved from somewhere else in the past five years -- including many Albertan imports that may lean right.

Abbotsford-Mission
Likely
BC Liberal
Abbotsford South
Likely
BC Liberal
Abbotsford West
Likely
BC Liberal
Alberni-Pacific Rim
Definitely
BC NDP
Boundary-Similkameen
Likely
BC NDP
Burnaby-Deer Lake
Definitely
BC NDP
Burnaby-Edmonds
Definitely
BC NDP
Burnaby-Lougheed
Likely
BC NDP
Burnaby North
Likely
BC NDP
Cariboo-Chilcotin
Likely
BC NDP
Cariboo North
Likely
BC Liberal
Chilliwack
Likely
BC NDP
Chilliwack-Hope
Likely
BC NDP
Columbia River-Revelstoke
Definitely
BC NDP
Comox Valley
Likely
BC NDP
Coquitlam-Burke Mountain
Likely
BC NDP
Coquitlam-Maillardville
Definitely
BC NDP
Cowichan Valley
Definitely
BC NDP
Delta North
Likely
BC NDP
Delta South
Likely
Independent
Esquimalt-Royal Roads
Definitely
BC NDP
Fort Langley-Aldergrove
Definitely
BC Liberal
Fraser-Nicola
Definitely
BC NDP
Juan de Fuca
Definitely
BC NDP
Kamloops-North Thompson
Likely
BC NDP
Kamloops-South Thompson
Likely
BC NDP
Kelowna-Lake Country
Definitely
BC Liberal
Kelowna-Mission
Definitely
BC Liberal
Kootenay East
Likely
BC Liberal
Kootenay West
Definitely
BC NDP
Langley
Likely
BC Liberal
Maple Ridge-Mission
Likely
BC NDP
Maple Ridge-Pitt Meadows
Definitely
BC NDP
Nanaimo
Definitely
BC NDP
Nanaimo-North Cowichan
Definitely
BC NDP
Nechako Lakes
Likely
BC Liberal
Nelson-Creston
Definitely
BC NDP
New Westminster
Definitely
BC NDP
North Coast
Definitely
BC NDP
North Island
Definitely
BC NDP
North Vancouver-Lonsdale
Likely
BC NDP
North Vancouver-Seymour
Definitely
BC Liberal
Oak Bay-Gordon Head
Likely
BC Liberal
Parksville-Qualicum
Likely
BC Liberal
Peace River North
Likely
BC Liberal
Peace River South
Likely
BC Liberal
Penticton
Likely
BC NDP
Port Coquitlam
Definitely
BC NDP
Port Moody-Coquitlam
Definitely
BC NDP
Powell River-Sunshine Coast
Definitely
BC NDP
Prince George-Mackenzie
Likely
BC NDP
Prince George-Valemount
Likely
BC Liberal
Richmond Centre
Definitely
BC Liberal
Richmond East
Definitely
BC Liberal
Richmond-Steveston
Definitely
BC Liberal
Saanich North and the Islands
Likely
BC NDP
Saanich South
Definitely
BC NDP
Shuswap
Likely
BC Liberal
Skeena
Definitely
BC NDP
Stikine
Definitely
BC NDP
Surrey-Cloverdale
Definitely
BC Liberal
Surrey-Fleetwood
Definitely
BC NDP
Surrey-Green Timbers
Definitely
BC NDP
Surrey-Newton
Definitely
BC NDP
Surrey-Panorama
Likely
BC NDP
Surrey-Tynehead
Likely
BC NDP
Surrey-Whalley
Definitely
BC NDP
Surrey-White Rock
Definitely
BC Liberal
Vancouver-Fairview
Likely
BC NDP
Vancouver-False Creek
Likely
BC Liberal
Vancouver-Fraserview
Likely
BC NDP
Vancouver-Hastings
Definitely
BC NDP
Vancouver-Kensington
Definitely
BC NDP
Vancouver-Kingsway
Definitely
BC NDP
Vancouver-Langara
Likely
BC NDP
Vancouver-Mount Pleasant
Definitely
BC NDP
Vancouver-Point Grey
Likely
BC NDP
Vancouver-Quilchena
Definitely
BC Liberal
Vancouver-West End
Definitely
BC NDP
Vernon-Monashee
Likely
BC NDP
Victoria-Beacon Hill
Definitely
BC NDP
Victoria-Swan Lake
Definitely
BC NDP
West Vancouver-Capilano
Definitely
BC Liberal
West Vancouver-Sea to Sky
Definitely
BC Liberal
Westside-Kelowna
Definitely
BC Liberal

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And for the latest Tyee election reporting, stay tuned to the Election Hook.

B.C. ridings The Tyee is covering in the 2013 election